Back in November 2003 - or so we are led to believe - a secret meeting took place at Westminster attended by Prime Minister Tony Blair, his deputy John Prescott, and Chancellor Gordon Brown. Mr Blair was facing a potentially hazardous few months with the report on the David Kelly affair looming and Labour MPs in rebellious mood over Iraq, foundation hospitals and tuition fees. The Prime Minister appealed for his two senior colleagues' support over what he correctly predicted would be some difficult times for him and for the Government. He is then said to have delivered a clear hint that, if he got through the next few months unscathed, he would voluntarily hand over power to Mr Brown in time for the next General Election. As this is my last column of 2004 - next Saturday being Christmas Day - it is an appropriate moment for me to take my customary look back over the political year now ending. It is fair to say that the ramifications of that fateful November 2003 meeting came to dominate the politics of the ensuing 13 months. For my part, I never believed for a minute that Mr Blair had the slightest intention of standing down before the election, however much the massed ranks of Fleet Street may speculate about it. What I do know is that the Prime Minister is a past master in the art of enabling people to leave a room thinking he has made them a promise, when in fact he hasn't. Hence the real significance of the meeting almost certainly lies not in what Mr Blair said, but in what Mr Brown thought he said. The Chancellor - and, it would appear, Mr Prescott too - left the room that night firm in the belief that a deal had been done and that the "tectonic plates" would soon begin to grind. The "deal" bore its first fruit early in the New Year when the tuition fee revolt was defeated following a last-minute change of heart by Mr Brown's right-hand man, Newcastle East MP Nick Brown. Another North-East MP who had been planning to rebel was hauled into a meeting with the Chancellor minutes before the vote and told point blank to support the Government. Days later, the report into the circumstances surrounding the death of the Ministry of Defence weapons expert Dr David Kelly in July 2003 was finally published. On that occasion it was not Mr Brown who came to the Prime Minister's rescue, but the report's author Lord Hutton, who exonerated Downing Street of any responsibility for the scientist's death. Instead, Hutton blamed the BBC, which had reported Dr Kelly's concerns over the infamous claim that Iraq was capable of launching chemical and biological weapons at 45 minutes' notice. Director-General Greg Dyke promptly quit - but the apparent whitewashing of the Government's role strained the public's credulity to such an extent that it provoked a backlash. Partly as a result, Mr Blair was later forced to concede a much wider-ranging inquiry into the intelligence that had been received by MI6 in the run-up to the spring 2003 conflict. The ensuing report by former Cabinet Secretary Lord Butler was much less of a whitewash - but the retired mandarin ended up being too subtle for his own good. His report contained some devastating criticisms of the way in which dodgy intelligence was presented as hard fact, but they were couched in such polite language that Mr Blair was again able to wriggle off the hook. Lord Butler later returned to the fray with a much more explicit attack on the Prime Minister's style of Government - but by then, the moment had passed. Indeed, by the time MPs returned from their summer break in September, Mr Blair felt confident enough to risk a major confrontation with his Chancellor by bringing Darlington MP Alan Milburn back into the Cabinet. He also blithely conceded that the 45-minute claim had been wrong - an admission that months earlier would almost certainly have cost him his job. Then, in a final, stunning coup-de-theatre, he announced that he planned to serve a full third term in power before standing down shortly before a General Election in 2009 or 2010. Whether or not he manages it, the move shattered whatever remained of the November 2003 accord and left the 54-year-old Mr Brown looking at a long and potentially fruitless wait for the top job. Closer to home, Labour narrowly held on to Hartlepool after an acrimonious by-election triggered by Peter Mandelson's departure to Brussels to become a European Commissioner. But what began as the North-East's "year of destiny" turned into a year of disaster for supporters of an elected regional assembly. Hampered by a half-hearted set of proposals from the Government, the "yes" campaign failed to translate an early opinion poll lead into votes, losing November's home rule referendum by a margin of 4-1. Alternative solutions now urgently need to be found to the imbalances in the constitution and the economy which regional government was designed partly to address. The political year ended dramatically with Home Secretary David Blunkett succumbing to a Shakespearean tragedy which saw him lose first his mistress, then his judgment, and finally his job. As predicted in this column two weeks ago, he was replaced by Charles Clarke, but the bearded bruiser is not quite in Mr Blunkett's league as a politician, and Mr Blair's Government has undoubtedly been weakened. Meanwhile, Mr Brown continues to wait in the wings, still in pole position to succeed if events once again start to go against the Prime Minister. And with a General Election in the offing, the focus of attention now turns to the voters to do what Messrs Hutton and Butler between them either couldn't - or wouldn't - accomplish. | 
